At the paris game, it was daring. In the second quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.3 from the first, according to results published yesterday by Insee. Mid-June, the Statistical Institute had anticipated that he would still decrease of 0.6 and considered that "the likelihood that the published figure is positive (was) less than 5." Economists still anticipated them also decreased. "After four consecutive negative quarters, the France sort finally red", welcomed the Minister of economy, finding itself the figure "highly surprising." A surprise shared by the Germany, whose GDP grew to 0.3 in the second quarter (read page 6), and welcomed by the stock exchange in the morning.
The latest short-term results had issued, in recent weeks, positive signals, that the judge Insee have underestimated (read the interview below). Afterwards, the Institute for statistics is the inflection point of the French economy in late may, with the rebound, after eight months of violent decline of industrial production: it thus rose by 1.1 in the second quarter, after a drop of 7.5 at the end 2008 and even 6.5 in the first quarter. Automotive explains to him only half of the improvement of industrial production, said Insee. "Premiums in France and Germany case-insensitive fired the application," explains Benoît Heitz, head of the cyclical synthesis division. French manufacturers began to produce, sell and export cars, with the passage of German recovery plan. In the end, exports were more dynamic ( 1) that imports (-2,3), bringing 0.9 point to growth. "The contribution of trade is particularly positive because of the fall in imports, which is less positive than a contribution due to the strength of our exports", relativizes Laurence Boone, Chief Economist for Barclays Capital France on the Echosnoclastes blog.
The social crisis is not over
Destocking of companies continued, weighing on activity but leaving a few growth reserves, unlike point Pierre - Olivier Beffy, Chief Economist of Exane BNP Paribas. "Automobile production should be good this summer, the automatic stabilizers will continue to play their full role, the stimulating effects of the recovery plan will continue and lesser destocking should draw activity," he wrote, anticipating a third quarter even more positive ( 0.5).
The Government, which promotes the effects of the stimulus package (see below) but remains polls by multiple revisions of his accounts since last year, will take its time to draw conclusions from these results. "There will be a new macroeconomic framing to the re-entry." "But this is not a subject which politically was a big relief," said the entourage of Christine Lagarde. At the end of June, GDP still recoils 2.6 over a year, a recession unprecedented since 1945. However, "our forecast for 2010 is support", judge.
Despite the good resistance of the household consumption this spring ( 0.3), the Government knows that the social crisis is not completed. Insee published this morning the first results of the employment in the second quarter. "The degradation of work in the second quarter market appears to have been less important than at the beginning of the year, but the loss of jobs throughout the year will be sensitive", indicates this morning Christine Lagarde in "Le Figaro".
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