No recession is expected. No more in the US than in the euro area or the Japan. The Organization of cooperation and development (OECD), which was published yesterday in Paris, its new forecasts for growth in the developed economies, is decidedly serene. From its projections of last June, the increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) of the 30 member countries of the Organization was amputated by 0.4 of a point, to 2.3 in 2008.
Jorgen Elmeskov, its Chief Economist acting, the robustness of the developed economies explains their many shock resistance that they come from cash. Whether the financial turbulence, the shot of cold on the real estate markets or rising prices for energy and raw materials. "Fortunately, these shocks have occurred at a time when the growth was supported by a high rate of employment, boosting income and consumption;" by high companies with strong balance sheets, profit for the maintenance of the investment and some resistance to financial losses and the credit crunch; "by still dynamic global trade fueled by robust growth in emerging economies", China in mind, he says in the preamble to the report of the organization. In this context, the United States should be able to escape from the recession, the ch‚teau de la Muette experts forecasting cyclical low point in the first quarter of next year where growth, annualized, would still 1.1 before to strengthen. For all of next year, should rise to 2. Private consumption should know a very pronounced slowdown across the Atlantic, next year, under the effect of declining real estate heritage, the degradation of the market work, rising energy prices and the deterioration of confidence. But the strong exports, brought by the weakness of the dollar, will support us economic activity. The growth of the eurozone, it is planned to 1.9 in 2008. "The increase in interest rates, the appreciation of the euro and the tightening of credit conditions are factors that inhibit the activity," said the report of the organization.
Exceptional tax revenues
The current inflationary pressures related to the increase in oil and commodity prices are temporary. For OECD, the black gold should remain around $ 90 per barrel and the skyrocketing prices of certain food products is due to the climate effects on crops. "Overall, the belief that inflation will remain low (...)". "is a major operational asset," she says. Clearly, the central banks American and European have no cause for concern. Monetary authorities may refrain from any closer and to keep a margin of manoeuvre if the financial crisis to get worse. That the OECD has planned to establish its forecasts. The US Federal Reserve would maintain its rates unchanged to meet them end of 2009. The ECB, for its part, would be a status quo both in 2008 than in 2009.
If the economists of the ch‚teau de la Muette to serene on monetary policy, they are a little more concerned on fiscal policy. The growth resulted in "exceptional" tax revenues As a result, Governments have tended to release their their fiscal consolidation efforts. At the risk of creating serious embarrassment if the situation had to deteriorate seriously. What "could impede the free play of the automatic budgetary stabilizers to a time when they are necessary", warns OECD.