The planets are not yet aligned for a merge

Safran-Thales merger, it is distributed. For several weeks, two national champions of the Aeronautics and defence are found in secret at the Montalembert, a chic hotel in Paris. The purpose of the consultations Stop the last details of an industrial Meccano as it likes them in Paris. With close to 25 billion euros in sales and 120,000 employees, the new set come close to the great of America. The State, which holds 30 of Safran and 26 of Thales, blessed the operation, in accordance with industrial nationalism promoted by Nicolas Sarkozy. Same Dassault, shareholder private reference of Thales with 21 of the capital, quickly saw the interest to control the destiny of future technological conglomerate. Estimated at EUR 3 billion by 2012, synergies should not disappoint the stock market. Even the distribution of responsibilities is no longer debate: privilege of the experience, Jean-Paul Herteman (Safran) will take the Presidency of the Council, and Luc Vigneron (Thales) Directorate General. Remains to christen the new group. "Sales" is the rope, but supporters of the "Thafran" have not said their last word. Curtain-raising expected soon...

Except that what is written above is... wrong! Synergies, go-ahead from shareholders, allocation of roles... Apart Hotel, is invented. A little more than two years after the previous attempt, making pschitt, supporters of the Saffron-Thales merger will not able to claim victory. The story said, does not recur. And yet.

At the request of the Ministry of defence, the two companies look at how close some of their activities both competing and complementary to the somewhat abstract names: "optronic", "inertial guidance" or even "avionics". Technologies packed electronics, which are used to the cockpit of aircraft, ships, and missiles, but very costly to develop. A such sign that the military can no longer finance two offices separated. By bringing their forces, Thales and Safran get also the critical size which is lacking in markets in full development, billions of dollars, and many civilian opportunities.

In fact, this is years defence grows its two suppliers to "streamline their borders". After ups and downs, trade resumed a certain force recently, in the form of "exploratory high-level talks" between Jean-Paul Herteman and Luc Vigneron. But still many uncertain their outcome. Above all, they might disappoint the supporters of an ambitious agreement. For the time being the patron of Thales suggests that the constitution of a single Optronics pole because combined revenue EUR 1 billion (500 million each). Step wrong, but in saffron, is much larger, since - to simplify - Directorate would be prepared to cede all its defence activities. But if retrieve the only thing that interested him: the positions of Thales in embedded electronics.

The merger with Sagem has blurred its image, Safran is indeed before all an aviation manufacturer, providing to Airbus, Boeing, or Chinese and Russian of the swathes of their aircraft manufacturers: engines, brakes, landing gear, cables... But the situation is changing. Because, in all these facilities, electric power replaces more and more his hydraulic ancestor and uses a myriad of computers to control its distribution. Sign of the importance of this evolution, Safran has brought mid-2008. all his skills, to prepare for the advent of the all-electric aircraft. The problem is that Thales, which is great civil OEM also shared the same ambition. For the ex-Thomson-CSF, not issue drop "its" embedded electronics, even in exchange for strengthened positions in defence, the heart of historic profession.

It is in power. At this point that, to avoid that the mountain giving birth to a mouse, one wonders if it is better not to go through the big bang. This would have the advantage of putting everyone in agreement and create a national champion of the electric aircraft, instead of dispersing its forces. The issue indeed far exceeds the original objectives of the Army (better spend on some technologies of sovereignty), to embrace global commercial considerations. Of course, will say right the pragmatic, a merger is long, complicated, and therefore risky. In 2007, Safran had not yet digested the acquisition of Sagem and its course dragging behind that of Thales. Today it is the opposite. Saffron is in orbit, as shown in his contract to power the C919, the Chinese competitor the B737 or A320. During this time, Thales coughs, leaded by losses on the A400M including. And the aviation industry has not yet finished with the crisis. The planets are not yet aligned for a merge. But they will eventually be well. After all, there is no emergency.