Before this fix the CAC 40 index even went nine weeks of gains

It was several weeks that the markets were not EUPM in negative territory. Before this fix, the CAC 40 index even went nine weeks of gains. The rebound of the stock from their low point is the highest ever recorded. The finding can be extended to other classes of assets as "risky." Since the lowest in early March, the performance offered by shares amounted to 35 and 25 speculative bonds!

A break can be regarded as a sign of normalization. As noted by many experts, the economic fundamentals are still not good. The question "where sees are the buds of recovery", the famous "green shoots" widely mentioned by the Anglo-Saxon strategists who identify the first signs of economic improvement, the team of OFI responds: "not in Europe for now or in the industrial sector in the United States, where it appears that the situation deteriorates in March."

Pressure on the bond

Last week, the markets also digested the announcement of a historical contraction of GDP in the euro area. Growth fell by 2.5 in the first quarter from the previous. The recession is confirmed. The table is not better on the front of the employment and corporate defaults.

The Citi team adds that it must wait for an improvement of the OECD leading indicator to actually regain confidence and asserts that the "results of companies are not yet a factor of support for sustainable recovery of the market shares".

Before the break last week, the operators have forged their optimism in the glow of a slowdown of economic degradation and stabilization of the housing market is beginning. The prospect of an out of the crisis has emerged as the dominant theme.

This idea remains topical, but it must now be supported by concrete signs that stock prices could resume their ascent. "The markets seem to lack of fuel to continue their upward movement", consider the economists of the Crédit Agricole.

Among the data that may influence the stock market, are expected this week surveys ZEW in Germany which measures the confidence of investors and those conducted with purchase managers (PMI) in the euro area. In the United States, attention will focus on housing starts, the leading indicator of the Conference Board and the investigation of the Philadelphia Fed. The minutes of the last monetary policy of the EDF Committee will also be a valuable indicator for market operators. Beyond economic analysis made by the members of the Federal Reserve, investors are looking to whether program of buyback of Treasury bonds is likely to be expanded. Pressure on the bond market may push the Central Bank to be more aggressive in its device, in an attempt to maintain low rates.

A pool of investors

If the time of the unbridled enthusiasm seems to be gone, the potential increase in risky assets is not less. "There is a pool of investors as final buyers have not purchased shares recently, argues Jean-Marie Mercadal in FIO.". And it is still to close to 50 below stock levels of mid-2007 and 30 lower than last September. "Citi team judge for his part that the lack of attractiveness of assets not risky (such as the borrowing of State) argues for the other. Stocks and speculative bonds having registered the best performance, the Bank strategists identify today more value in well rated corporate bonds.