In a month, the clouds accumulated on the French economy. Barrel of oil rose from 81 to more than 95 dollars. The euro has appreciated. In the United States, major banks have confessed day after day more disaster results, precipitating the fall of the patterns of Merrill Lynch and Citigroup. Bad loans exceed the amounts for the height of the crisis of the summer. Ten days ago, the American stock exchange index S & P500 lost 2.5 in a single session.
The France will not be spared by the shock is the first global consumer: reflecting a correction to a decline in profit expectations, the CAC 40 lost more than 100 points. In the surveys, patterns and households surveyed view the future with greater concern. Forecasters are revising their forecasts for growth downward. Developments in October should further darken this table and threatening the prospects for 2008.
Global economy passengers must fasten their seatbelts to cushion the shock... France gold, by an unlikely combination of circumstances, it is made thing. Indeed, the 2008 budget to inject 5.5 billion euros défiscalisant overtime. The bulk of this money will populate the budget of the employees who perform some 900 million of overtime work already performed in our country. He is associate professionals, employees and workers, more inclined to eat to save. Second registry of purchasing power: the quasi-suppression of the rights of mutation and the partial deduction of mortgage interest, nearly EUR 2.5 billion divided among owners and buyers of housing. With these measures, the State will invest 8 billion euro in the economy in 2008, or approximately 0.5 point of GDP.
It is therefore in the case of school of macroeconomics textbooks: the candidate Sarkozy measures will make in the purchasing power of households at the time where the economy will fail, for "smooth" consumption during the air hole. The right did not repeat the error of 1995, when the budgetary restrictions imposed by the Maastricht Treaty had killed in the economic recovery egg that war.
Then why economic policy does meet, in the majority of experts, that doubt or disapproval Still a few months ago, the France was struggling to follow the train of world growth, lack of competitiveness, and not by domestic demand deficit. A budget of Keynesian stimulus was unreadable. But this summer slowdown has changed the equation.
For economists, the situation is thus comparable to that of a football player with the ball would reach the goal after improbable rebounds. Transatlantic, a similar coincidence occurred in the summer 2000, when George Bush team was honored on campaign promises by sending checks to taxpayers. This measure, a priori favourable to the affluent and incomprehensible categories within the euphoric 1990s, had allowed the economy to resist the collapse of the stock market.
This is not to suspend any critical thinking. For example, a fringe of the stimulus package about 2 billion euros seeks to revive the business investment in the partially défiscalisant. It is the "political offer" component of the budget. This type of measure, rather consensual and non-partisan, is typically done in vain: studies show that they do not stimulate investment but create effects of boon for businesses. Finally, can wonder about the lack of reversibility of the reforms. But assuming that the President knows not to assign to a magical power of divination unexpected timeliness of its fiscal policy, no reason to hide some relief: the France is dressed for the crisis.