The shock wave created by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, fourth American Investment Bank, the absorption in disaster of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America and, more worryingly, the similar danger threatening the first insurer in the country, AIG, pose a grave threat to the economy of the United States, already particularly weakened.
Proven strength
Yet showed, so far, serious capacity of resistance to a crisis of the "subprime" which lasts for more than a year and a skyrocketing oil prices unprecedented. Despite a net slowdown in the growth of national wealth, despite a higher sensitive to inflation, despite worrying rise in the level of unemployment (at 6.1 in August), the United States are not in a recession, as the predicted many analysts a few months ago. The OECD has even identified its growth forecasts for 2008 to 1.8.
That said, the sudden worsening of the situation and the assumption of a systemic crisis pushed the stakes concern: "the major risk today regarding AIG." "If the whole monetary markets block, if companies are more credits, the impact on the real economy would be very heavy", recognizes Anton Brender, Director of economic studies in Dexia AM. Of course, the attitude of the US Federal Reserve, which chose not to save Lehman Brothers, but to inject massive liquidity in markets, creates some uncertainty on the willingness and ability of the authorities to prevent the catastrophe. Even though yesterday, the Bush administration has been reassuring. "Not there see the sign that it's over", and that the Government will more focus to the rescue of anyone, said yesterday the Secretary to the Treasury Henry Paulson, not recall his confidence in "health and robustness of the financial and banking system." In fact, "there are two contradictory forces at work, don't know yet who will prevail, said Anton Brender.". "On the one hand, a danger increased financial destabilization, on the other, of new forces for stabilization in the real economy".
Stabilization forces
Primo: the strong decline in the price of oil, "a stimulation almost as important factor that the Bush stimulus plan". Factor to which American households have also immediately responded, as shown in the rise of the University of Michigan confidence index. On the other hand, the Democrats ask a second recovery plan. Secondo: the recent decision of Washington to nationalize the two giants of mortgage Giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which now enjoy completely of public security, "will allow household debt to refinance costs low and especially to those who want to buy a House to the benefit of more interesting rates, which gives hope to see the real estate market to stabilize finally"He added. He pointed out that the mortgage rate, which climbed for months, fell dramatically in a week. Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac can also manage the loans in default of a more flexible and more accommodating manner, enabling them to limit the number of seizures.
Last glimmer of optimism, commercial banks are not, for their part, bankrupt, as have been the hammering yesterday George Bush and Henry Paulson. Sufficient reassuring to bet, said Anton Brender, on the strength of the real economy in the United States. A condition, of course, that the whole of the financial system is not plunging.
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